Welcome back to the DYCÂ (semi) official NFL over/unders. This is the one where you read to the bottom to see if I am able to talk myself into the over for the Falcons (SPOILERS: I powered through) and where you get to laugh at the Cowboys for the first (not the last) time in the 2014 season.
Since Wednesday, when the AFC half of the over unders went live, injuries have already touched teams that we covered yesterday. Now, I’m not suggesting that Colts guard Donald Thomas tearing his quad Wednesday (same injury that took 14 games from him last year) is going to drop the Colts in the division, but anything that pushes a veteran to IR and a rookie to a contributing role has to be considered.
Again, these picks are based on teams as they are constituted at publication, and injuries and cuts change everything.
NFC NORTH
Chicago: 8.5
Detroit: 8.5
Green Bay: 10.5
Minnesota: 6
Early reports out of Bears camp is touting this year’s rookie class, particularly the potential contributions on defense. In a reversal of fates, Chicago’s offense was their trademark last year, with Jay Cutler leading the charge with Jeffery and Marshall emerging as the best (healthy) WR tandem in the league last year. Keeping Jay upright should carry the Bears well north of the line here. OVER.
They say a new head coach is worth a solid two win bump, in a vacuum. Two wins better than last year would give Detroit 9 wins, barely covering the over. Jim Caldwell is NOT an inspirational figure that folks are going to rally around, unless by folks, you mean pigeons (this sentence brought to you by me being convinced Caldwell is a statue). Add in the Suh contract talks, and it doesn’t bode well for the Lions. Sure, they got rid of the players coach whose squads lacked discipline, but they replaced him with a player’s coach whose squad will lack discipline. AND the new guy won’t bring us any funny post game hand shakes. UNDER.
Seneca Wallace started a game for Green Bay last year, which should explain all that needs explaining about last year’s 8-7-1- (NFL ties!) campaign. This year, look for an improved defense if only because Healthy Aaron Rodgers means a less tired defense, things look good for the Pack in the NFC North. OVER.
Goodbye merry-go-round of sadness that was the Vikings quarterback meeting room, hello (apparently) Teddy Bridgewater. Local media slurping the new QB, Adrian Peterson saying he’s dreamed of playing in an offense like Norv Turner’s, everything looks to be headed in the right direction for the Vikes. But, Peterson just threw over 300 carries on his body each of the past two seasons, a feat he has never accomplished three years in a row. Look out for injury, overuse, and age to be a factor as well as a ROUGH schedule. UNDER.
NFC WEST
Arizona: 7.5
San Francisco: 10.5
Seattle: 11
St. Louis: 7.5
Everyone who picked the Cards to go 10-6 last year, raise your hands. You’re all liars. Reviewing the offensive numbers, I got super confused, until I remembered that the NFC West was murderer’s row last year, and all four teams were defined by hard-hitting, ball hawking defense. Then I remembered that Honey Badger is continuing to develop, and the Cards just signed Patrick Peterson to a mega-deal. But then I saw that Carson Palmer is still under center, and their starting running back last year averaged a paltry 3.2 yards per carry. Light a candle for Larry Fitzgerald. UNDER.
The terrifying level of success of Jim Harbaugh and company only serves to accentuate how ridiculous the offseason has been in San Francisco. Aside from the Aldon Smith situation(s), rumors flew that the Niners were actively shopping their coach to other teams. Mind you, he is the only NFL coach in history to have reached a conference championship game in each of his first three seasons. Whatever the front office doesn’t like, the players seem to listen to him, and wins cover a lot of problems. Hell, it’s not like he thinks his running back is a national hero for admitting knocking his wife unconscious is wrong, like big brother John. So, that’s nice. OVER. [1]
Something’s gotta give. Can they keep giving Beast Mode 300 carries? Can Russell Wilson continue to play football with that horseshoe shoved so deeply up his (EDITED)? Can this defense continue to laugh at the statistical history of the league and keep that turnover rate up? Monocle Pete Carroll says yes, but I say UNDER.
The Rams of St. Louis better be ready for the level of distraction that comes with a highly paid franchise quarterback who only played in 7 games last year, and is staring down ‘extension or cut bait’ time. Also, they could be distracted by the fact that the division around them is the best in the NFL, and looks to only get better. Or, they could be distracted by their head coach who hasn’t been to the postseason since 2008. Not a distraction? That guy Tony Dungy keeps chirping about (great pre-draft write-up by Stephen White), and that’s why I say OVER. [2]
NFC EAST
Dallas: 7.5
New York: 8
Philadelphia: 9
Washington: 7.5
HOW ‘BOUT DEM COWBOYS? My crystal ball (not an actual crystal ball) says that the residents of Jerry World start off strong-ish, hit a mid-season malaise, look terrible by the start of cold weather and fall late to a division foe who will keep them out of the playoffs in week 17. Glancing at the schedule, I see Washington looming to close the season, and feel confident of how this season is going to go: just like the last few, a .500 ball club that embarrasses late. OVER.
The new Giants coaching staff has set an aggressive goal of having Manning the Lesser throw for 70% completions this year. Now, this is lofty when you consider only 6 quarterbacks in NFL history have met or exceeded 70% in a season. But, when you realize that Eli completed at a 57.5% rate last year while throwing 27 (!) interceptions, the goal flies from lofty to laughable. The retooled offensive line should help, but the running game looks shaky, at best, with David Wilson’s return not likely. UNDER. [3]
You hear that? There, off in the distance? That’s the sound of Chip Kelly geniusing all over the place. Sure, we questioned the transition from Oregon to the Eagles, and we scoffed at the numerous TEs on the roster. But, results are results, and no one is questioning the 10 wins. That said, this offseason would be catastrophic (losing Jackson, convincing yourself Nick Foles is the best ever), but this team gets to pick on the rest of the division AND gets to beat up on the AFC South this year. OVER.
Ding, dong, the Shanahans are gone! RG3’s knees are cheering, and so are fans of watchable football everywhere. The Washington Professional Football Team is poised to benefit from the mediocrity of their division this year, and the whole, “having a healthy star quarterback†thing is a great place to start. Keep in mind, this team was also decimated by injury on the defensive side of the ball last year too, and the idea of them beating the Cowboys in Washington to close the season and make Tony Romo sad again is too appetizing to not happen. OVER.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta: 8.5
Carolina: 8.5
New Orleans: 10
Tampa Bay: 7
I always save the NFC South for last because I am an irrational Falcons fan. That was me, every week last year, picking the Falcons to win even though logic dictated that the injuries and lack of depth would kill us. But there I was, making horrible picks all year in the name of fanhood. Between this year’s announcement of the Falcons as the Hard Knocks Team , and residual bile in my heart, I didn’t know if I could pick the Birds to win 9 games. But then, a logical and reasonable voice called out: it was Bill Barnwell. Thank you sir. #BirdGang. OVER. [4]
Just as Atlanta’s fall to the bottom was a aberration, so must I look at the 12-win 2013 Panthers. For the first time, Cam Newton’s squad eclipsed 7 wins, and made a playoff run. I don’t think the other teams in the division will be as snakebitten (Falcons), or poorly coached (Bucs) this year. Plus, cutting Steve Smith has a karmic cost…and potentially a tangible one, depending on how many fights he can goad your players into when they play the Ravens. UNDER.
<totally rational hatred> Saints. UNDER. Oh, and keep low balling your most important players and take them to court over the chance to not pay them. THAT’LL keep New Orleans a viable free agent destination.
Lovie Smith takes over a Bucs squad that was, to put it kindly, mismanaged by the previous coach. That said, everything out of camp sounds good so far, Luke Josh McCown is cashing in on his successful spot duty in Chicago last year, and there haven’t been any MRSA outbreaks yet. It’s a low bar from last year, but a bar the Bucs seem poised to clear in 2014. Me? I’ll miss making my Beeker jokes about Glennon. You hold that clipboard well, young man. OVER. [5]
There you have it, live from the Dude (still not loving the nickname…), all 32 teams with money making* predictions on their seasons. We’ll be tackling more NFL stories on this week’s Hangover podcast, and getting ready for the first NFL preseason game this Sunday (!!!!) as the Giants take on the Bills in the annual Hall of Fame Game.
We made it y’all. Football’s back. Get excited.
*Totally not guaranteed to make you any money.
Love this? Hate it? Think I’m an idiot? Don’t just curse at me under your breath, head to the Dude You Podcast iTunes page, and leave a 5-star review to make sure I know it, and have your voice heard on the air. [6]
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Links
- ^ national hero for admitting (espn.go.com)
- ^ Stephen White (www.sbnation.com)
- ^ not likely (www.nj.com)
- ^ Bill Barnwell (grantland.com)
- ^ MRSA outbreaks (deadspin.com)
- ^ Dude You Podcast iTunes p age (itunes.apple.com)
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